“产能过剩”的原因(节选）
by 周其仁
“产能过剩”不过是一个新说法。过去大家耳熟能详的“低水平重复建设”、“过度投资”、“恶性竞争”以及更久远的“一放就乱”等等，指的其实是同一种现象。这就是，投资形成的生产能力大大超过市场的需要。派生的现象是，产品杀价严重、企业亏损增加、产能大量闲置。多少年了，批评、警告、指责外加随之而来的各种措施，“产能过剩”依然故我，总有什么原因吧。
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转谈目前中国的“产能过剩”。仍由政府部门和官员“安排”的投资，出了错，国库、银行、股市负责赔，所以错、错、错，赔、赔、赔，多、多、多，没有什么好奇怪的。问题是，目前严重发生“产能过剩”的行业，并不是由清一色传统国企组成，许多民企私企也很不少。这些产权边界大体清楚的企业，为什么也热衷于参加产能过剩的游戏呢？即便有银行贷款可以作为杠杆，真要赔本的时候，自有资本的比例再低，赔掉了就不心痛？
目前我国“产能过剩”的分布，粗略看去，大体是三分天下。全部由国有垄断、政府定价的行业，产能过剩一般不严重，其中像电、油之类，还不时复发“短缺经济”的症候。在另外一极，即全部或大部由民营私营公司当家的领域，市场进出自由、价格开放的，也看不到严重的“产能过剩”。比如餐饮业，从来无须“产业政策”去关照，可搞得不错，关键是再也不容易找到头脑一热就开饭馆的“投资人”——除非他真的要和自己过不去。“产能过剩”最严重的，一定在以下行当：多种所有制企业一起上，市场准入不易退，政府干预频频。最近国务院关注的几大行当，钢铁、水泥、矿业等等，概莫能外；进一步的，家电、手机制造、（某种程度上的）房地产等等，也八九不离十。这是不是说明，目前我国的“产能过剩”，自有转型时期的特别诱因？ 事情还有另外一半。优秀的或自以为优秀的新投资者冲了进去，劣的退出来了吗？要是退得及时，就不会有严重的产能过剩了
Impact of CHINA economy
The popular focus on the yuan, America's trade deficit and jobs as China's main impact on the rest of the world misses the point. China's growing influence stretches much deeper than its exports of cheap goods: it is revolutionising the relative prices of labour, capital, goods and assets.
For instance, the oil price. Since the beginning of last year, oil prices have doubled, yet in contrast to previous oil shocks, inflation rates remain low and global growth robust. The answer to this riddle is China. To the extent that oil prices are driven up by strong Chinese demand rather than, as in the past, an interruption of supply, they are less likely to hurt global growth.
And the impact of higher oil prices on inflation has been offset by falling prices of all sorts of goods from cameras and computers to microwaves and bicycles—thanks to China.
Another oddity is that, while the prices of most goods are falling, house prices are soaring in many countries. Again, enter the dragon. Cheaper goods from China have made it easier for central banks to achieve their inflation goals without needing to push real interest rates sharply higher.
Review for China and the world economy
China combines a vast supply of cheap labour with an economy that is (for its size) unusually open to the rest of the world, in terms of trade and foreign direct investment. The sum of its total exports and imports of goods and services amounts to
around 75% of China's GDP; in Japan, India and Brazil the figure is 25-30%. ( 出口Fall，经济Fall)
Doubling the world's workforce
China's impact on the world economy can best be understood as what economists call a “positive supply-side shock”. Richard Freeman, an economist at Harvard University, reckons that the entry into the world economy of China, India and the former Soviet Union has, in effect, doubled the global labour force (China accounts for more than half of this increase). This has increased the world's potential growth rate, helped to hold down inflation and triggered changes in the relative prices of labour, capital, goods and assets.
The entry of China's vast army of cheap workers into the international system of production and trade has reduced the bargaining power of workers in developed economies. Although the absolute number of jobs outsourced from developed countries to China remains small, the threat that firms could produce offshore helps to keep a lid on wages. In most developed countries, wages as a proportion of total national income are currently close to their lowest level for decades.
China's main impact on the world economy is to change relative prices and incomes. Not only are the prices of the goods that China exports falling; the prices of the goods that it imports are rising, notably oil and other raw materials. China is already the world's biggest consumer of many commodities, such as aluminium, steel, copper and coal, and the second-biggest consumer of oil, so changes in Chinese demand have a big impact on world prices.
There is currently only one car for every 70 people in China, against one car for every two Americans. That implies a huge increase in oil demand, which could keep prices high for the foreseeable future, because of scarce global spare capacity. China's consumption per person of raw materials, such as copper and aluminium, is also still low, so rising demand will continue to support commodity prices.
Jul 28th 2005
From The Economist
Costs of Economic Growth
1. Inflation riskIf the economy grows too quickly there is the danger of inflation as demand races ahead of the ability of the economy to supply goods and services.
Producer then take advantage of this by raising prices for consumers. An outward shift in Aggregate demand can lead to an increase in the general price level.
2. InequalityNot all of the benefits of economic growth are evenly distributed. We can see a rise in national output but also growing income and wealth inequality in society. There will also be regional differences in the distribution of rising income and spending.
3. ExternalitiesFast growth can create negative externalities (increased pollution and congestion) which damages overall social welfare. Growth that damages the environment can have a long term negative effect on the quality of life and the sustainable rate of growth for an economy.
Theories of Economic Growth
Adam Smith 1776
1. Advocated division of labour, specialisation & accumulation of capital
2. Advocated Laissez Faire - minimum government interference
David Ricardo
1. Formalised notion of diminishing returns, but did not take innovation into account.
2. Showed some of the welfare gains from specialisation and international trade based on comparative advantage
Robert Solow: Neo-classical growth model
A combination of capital accumulation(1) and technological improvement (2) explains major trends in economic growth.
1. Adding more capital goods to a fixed amount of labour will lead to diminishing returns to capital.
2. Increased capital accumulation drives the rate of return on capital down
3. Eventually, the rate of return may be so low that no further net capital accumulation takes place.
4. In which case the rate of technological progress determined the rate of growth of output
Technological progress is assumed to be exogenous i.e. lies outside the growth model.
Paul Romer Model
Seeking to make technological progress endogenous.
1. A firm will not innovate unless it thinks it can steal a march on its competition & earn higher profits.
2. Inconsistent with Neo-Classical assumption of perfect competition - no "abnormal profits".
3. Attention shifted to conditions under which a firm will innovate most productively.
4. If capital broadened to include human capital, law of diminishing returns may not apply - increasing returns to investment from education & efficiency - innovation not necessary.
5. Extent of capacity usage - government encouragement of open markets.
